A new estimate of the damage caused by Hurricane Helene puts losses in the U.S. private insurance market at between $8 billion and $14 billion, according to Moody’s RMS Event Response.
Helene brought devastating flooding and storm surge to the Southeast and at least 232 people were killed. Moody’s RMS Event Response estimated that private market insured losses for Helene’s wind and storm surge damage will range between $6.7 billion and $12.3 billion, while inland flooding losses will be between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion.
That brings the total private market insured losses to between $8 billion and $14 billion, with a best estimate of $11 billion according to Moody’s RMS.
“Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season thus far, though this may quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody’s. “With Helene, multiple states were affected with different degrees of damage from wind, storm surge, and excessive rainfall-induced flooding.”
HURRICANE MILTON NEARS CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AS FLORIDA RESIDENTS TOLD TO PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS
The analysis also estimated that the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is managed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and operates as a public-private partnership, could reach $2 billion or more. Those losses are primarily caused by storm surge in Florida, as inland areas like western North Carolina that were devastated by flooding have low take-up rates for NFIP policies.
“The worst impacts from this event are from inland flooding, where Helene completely devastated several towns in North Carolina, Tennessee, and surrounding states with historical levels of precipitation,” explained Firas Saleh, director of U.S. inland flood models at Moody’s. “Thousands of buildings were exposed to fast-moving waters over eight feet, and several to depths greater than 15 feet. We expect widespread damage and total constructive losses in these regions, with prolonged recovery after the catastrophic infrastructure damage.”
HURRICANE HELENE DEVASTATION COULD COST UP TO $34B, MOODY’S SAYS
“Unfortunately, flood insurance penetration is extremely low in the worst-affected region, meaning most of the damage will be uninsured, and economic property losses will far outweigh insured losses. We expect to see Helene accelerating flood insurance purchases to help close the significant flood protection gap in these regions,” Saleh added.
Last week, Moody’s Analytics released a preliminary estimate of the damage caused by Hurricane Helene, putting property damage in a range of $15 billion to $26 billion – though it noted there was more uncertainty in the property damage estimate – with economic disruptions and lost output caused by school and office closures projected to cost in the $5 billion to $8 billion range. That brought the total preliminary cost estimate to a range of $20 billion to $34 billion.
RACE IS ON TO CLEAN UP HELENE DEBRIS ALONG FLORIDA’S COAST BEFORE MILTON’S WINDS ARRIVE
Hurricane Milton, which has switched between category 4 and category 5 status in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.
Moody’s RMS noted with Hurricane Milton due to hit Florida that areas experiencing damage that overlaps between Milton and Helene may make it difficult for claims adjusters to assign them to the event that caused the most damage.
“It’s worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation,” the National Hurricane Center warned on Tuesday. “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
FOX Weather’s Stephen Yablonski contributed to this report.
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